METR 104 Final Project:
Tables of Probabilities that the Observed Number (or More)
of El Niño or La Niña Events Occurring in Wet or Dry Years
Could Have Occurred in Those Years by Chance Alone

Columns:
   (A) Total number of El Niño or La Niña events
   (B) Of the total number of events in column (A), the number occurring in wet or in dry years
   (C) Probability that at least the observed number of events occurring in wet or dry years
could have occurred by chance alone
(A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
1 0 100.000 2 0 100.000 3 0 100.000 4 0 100.000 5 0 100.000
  1 33.871   1 56.270   1 71.081   1 80.876   1 87.354
        2 11.472   2 26.646   2 41.697   2 54.967
              3 3.886   3 11.595   3 21.791
                    4 1.316   4 4.798
                          5 0.446
(A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
6 0 100.000 7 0 100.000 8 0 100.000 9 0 100.000 10 0 100.000
  1 91.637   1 94.470   1 96.343   1 97.582   1 98.401
  2 65.937   2 74.642   2 81.358   2 86.433   2 90.209
  3 33.028   3 44.174   3 54.494   3 63.593   3 71.329
  4 10.553   4 18.166   4 26.975   4 36.296   4 45.542
  5 1.920   5 4.844   5 9.356   5 15.324   5 22.427
  6 0.151   6 0.750   6 2.137   6 4.582   6 8.220
        7 0.051   7 0.288   7 0.914   7 2.156
              8 0.017   8 0.109   8 0.382
                    9 0.006   9 0.041
                          10 0.002
(A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
11 0 100.000 12 0 100.000 13 0 100.000 14 0 100.000 15 0 100.000
  1 98.942   1 99.301   1 99.538   1 99.694   1 99.798
  2 92.984   2 95.002   2 96.458   2 97.501   2 98.244
  3 77.724   3 82.893   3 86.994   3 90.200   3 92.673
  4 54.276   4 62.218   4 69.221   4 75.241   4 80.308
  5 30.256   5 38.392   5 46.462   5 54.171   5 61.308
  6 13.032   6 18.866   6 25.480   6 32.587   6 39.898
  7 4.210   7 7.199   7 11.151   7 16.004   7 21.621
  8 0.983   8 2.076   8 3.811   8 6.297   8 9.585
  9 0.156   9 0.436   9 0.992   9 1.947   9 3.420
  10 0.015   10 0.063   10 0.189   10 0.461   10 0.964
  11 0.001   11 0.006   11 0.025   11 0.081   11 0.210
        12 0.000   12 0.002   12 0.010   12 0.034
              13 0.000   13 0.001   13 0.004
                    14 0.000   14 0.000
                          15 0.000
(A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
  (A)
# of Events
(B) # Events in Wet or Dry Years (C) Prob-
ability (%)
16 0 100.000 17 0 100.000 18 0 100.000 19 0 100.000 20 0 100.000
  1 99.866   1 99.912   1 99.942   1 99.961   1 99.974
  2 98.770   2 99.141   2 99.402   2 99.585   2 99.712
  3 94.560   3 95.986   3 97.055   3 97.850   3 98.438
  4 84.496   4 87.905   4 90.642   4 92.814   4 94.520
  5 67.743   5 73.417   5 78.324   5 82.496   5 85.991
  6 47.149   6 54.125   6 60.659   6 66.643   6 72.012
  7 27.811   7 34.361   7 41.055   7 47.695   7 54.113
  8 13.662   8 18.454   8 23.842   8 29.672   8 35.777
  9 5.508   9 8.270   9 11.719   9 15.826   9 20.516
  10 1.796   10 3.053   10 4.820   10 7.157   10 10.093
  11 0.465   11 0.916   11 1.640   11 2.717   11 4.221
  12 0.093   12 0.219   12 0.455   12 0.857   12 1.487
  13 0.014   13 0.041   13 0.101   13 0.221   13 0.436
  14 0.001   14 0.006   14 0.018   14 0.046   14 0.105
  15 0.0001   15 0.0006   15 0.0023   15 0.0075   15 0.0205
  16 0.00000   16 0.00003   16 0.0002   16 0.0009   16 0.0031
        17 0.00000   17 0.00001   17 0.0001   17 0.0004
              18 0.00000   18 0.00000   18 0.00003
                    19 0.00000   19 0.00000
                          20 0.00000